InvestorCentric: Mike Huckabee And His FairTax Program: Good Or Bad?
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Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Mike Huckabee And His FairTax Program: Good Or Bad?

The biggest economic change that Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, who finished third in New Hampshire's Republican primary yesterday, is vying for is the FairTax. He wants to see everyone taxed on consumption rather than the confusing taxation that goes on now through the IRS. In essence he wants to do away with the IRS, which obviously would be a major change to the current tax system. Some would say that anything that calls for the disbanding of the IRS can’t be all bad, but let's take a look at a couple opposing views.

On the subject of the FairTax plan, Huckabee’s website said, “Our current progressive tax system penalizes us for working harder and becoming more successful. As we climb the ladder, the government lurks on each rung, hungry for a bigger bite out of our earnings. The FairTax is also progressive, but it doesn't punish the American dream of success, or the old-fashioned virtues of hard work and thrift, it rewards and encourages them. The FairTax isn't intended to raise any more or less money for the federal government to spend - it is revenue neutral.

Expert analyses have shown that the FairTax lowers the lifetime tax burden of all of us: single or married; working or retired; rich, poor or middle class.”

On the other side of the debate, here is one of several potential problems, presented in a recent article in the Boston Globe:

“Prices will rise. Finally, FairTax supporters assume away many of the problems with their plan by asserting that prices will fall by 22 percent once all income taxes are abolished. Prices at the checkout would be about the same with the FairTax as they are now, they say, but everyone would come out ahead because their net wage will now equal their gross wage.

If this were so, it's hard to see why the rebate is needed, since there seems to be only winners and no losers under the FairTax. In reality, for prices to fall by 22 percent, business costs would also have to fall by 22 percent, which means that all workers would have to take a 22 percent pay cut.

It's unlikely that workers would agree to this. It is far more likely that the FairTax will raise the price of everything by 30 percent. This has been the case in every country and every state with a sales tax. The idea that prices will fall is just a pipe dream.

The FairTax is unworkable. It is a fantasy to think otherwise.”

Will the FairTax really work, or is it just a pipe dream Huckabee is preaching? If Huckabee is elected president, maybe we will find out.

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11 Comments:

Prices will remain practically the same because companies will not have to charge the customer the extra 22 cents on the dollar, as they do now, to pay the government. The inclusive 23% government sales tax will simply substitute for the inclusive 22% government corporate tax. No salaries will fall. Actually, the company should sell more product because people will now have their gross paychecks to buy more. The prebate is only in place to offset the many exemptions in place now, which will be eliminated under the FairTax. Read the book...please.

Neither Mike Huckabee or the FairTax are perfect, however both would be great for America.
There are problems with the FairTax however the problem you mentioned will not occur the prices will drop and wages will remain unchanged let me explain; the same person that brough t up that objection will tell you that the only change would be the employer matching of the payrole tax, let's assume that is true, the payrole tax is 7.5% so prices couldn't drop more than 7.5% right? WRONG!!
Let's say you're building a car and you need steel. in the cost of that steel you have all the payrole taxes paid by every company that ever touched that steel before you bought it to build your car and add in the cost of your taxes, these companies begin with the mining company, refineries, transportation companies and everyone else that touches that steel prior to your purchace. This example clearly shows how every item we buy could have multiple layers of taxes, estimated to be 20-30% of the cost of everything we buy. This effect along with other costs such as accountants and tax lawyers will be eliminated from business expences which will also reduce production costs and drive prices down.
The FairTax will be great for businesses and individuals alike weather you make $20k or $20mill a year. You will benefit from the FairTax UNLESS you are part of the underground economy(drug dealers, prostitutes, the mob)in which case you'll be contributing to the cost of government for the first time since 1913 when the income tax was instituted.
Like I said the FairTax is not perfect, there is one minor downside of the FairTax and that would be the fact that savings accumulated prior to the FairTax which has already been taxed will be taxed again when it is spent. I refer to this as a minor downside due to the fact that purchasing power of the savings does not change due to the removal of the imbedded taxes.
Mike Huckabee and The FairTax not perfect but sure beats the hell out of what we have now or any other options.

Your entry here raises some good questions, but I note that the Globe article you cite has some faulty reasoning in it:

"In reality, for prices to fall by 22 percent, business costs would also have to fall by 22 percent, which means that all workers would have to take a 22 percent pay cut."

This would be true if worker pay was the only cost input to business, but it isn't.

For clarity, the GAO estimates that somewhere around 22% of the cost of anything you buy is tax or tax-compliance related expense. This means tax paid, and it also means everything it costs to comply with the tax- hiring an HR specialist, paying a tax accountant, whatever tax strategists one retains, etc. Nationally, it's estimated that we spend in excess of $300M to comply with our tax system- that's above and beyond the $1.6T actual taxes paid- and astonishingly, it doesn't include the opportunity costs associated with tax strategies that forego maximal revenue generation in favor of avoiding taxes or capturing some tax benefit- this is estimated to cost us another ~$300M anually.

With the repeal of the current income tax system, the need to do this compliance work goes away- meaning the folks working today to comply with the tax system's requirements can do something else- like whatever it is their company does when it's not busy complying with our tax code. THAT's where that estimated 22% will come from- not from an average cut in everybody's pay, but from the elimination of an expensive burden imposed by the current tax system, and freeing those resources to be productive.

Personally, I think a 22% drop in price is optimistic- when business is taxed, that expense is passed along to not one but 3 inputs: to customers, in the form of higher prices, to workers, in the form of reduced wages, and to owners, in the form of reduced returns. My bet is that some of that gain will go to hire more workers and owners may use that gain to reinvest more in the business (say, by opening another location or investing in equipment).
This 22% figure probably assumes a supply chain of nested taxes cascading from one business entity to another, so some businesses (the ones with few inputs, or which are high in the supply chain) will experience less efficiency gains by virtue of the fact that they're not as heavily burdened to begin with.

That said, there will be efficiency gains realized, raw prices will definitely go down by some amount, and that's how the proposed tax can be revenue-neutral and promise to leave you better off than you are under the current system.

On the whole, shifting the tax event from your paycheck to the cash register will be a wash for most people- you'll have more money in your pocket, and you'll have more control over when and how you incur taxation, and that's a good thing- and at some point, you'll spend it.

In case you haven't noticed, I'm a fan of the proposed tax, even though I'm not much of a Huckabee fan. (I prefer my leadership to operate within the constraints of limited government, and usually Social Conservatives tend to want to use government to advance their social agendas).

The 22% drop in cost (upon removing existing federal taxes) comes from both the corporate taxes as well as the cost of compliance. It has nothing to do with individual income taxes nor wages.

Will prices automatically and instantly drop by that percentage? In some sectors, absolutely! Because they are commodities which are extremely competitively priced. In other sectors, it will take longer for the market to make the adjustment. But the free market will sooner or later adjust the prices to what is "right." And until it does, those that are priced competitively will win more marketshare, and those that are trying to make a quick extra buck will get a few extra bucks but then watch their business dry up as consumers feel they're getting ripped off.

The main FairTax website, www.fairtax.org has published a lot of specific research done on the legislation. (HR 25, S 1025) Check out the research section at www.fairtax.org/about_research and specifically some on how the FairTax has been shown to drastically expand the economy.

The 22% price drop from embedded taxes includes personal income taxes and payroll taxes. I don't belive it includes the cost of compliance at all.

Boorz acknowledges that he hasn't explained this well enough.
http://boortz.com/nuze/200509/09152005.html#fairtax .

We write in The FairTax Book that the competitive pressures of the marketplace will force prices down when embedded taxes disappear from the cost of retail goods and services, and we cite 22% as the average amount of those embedded taxes. Does this 22% include the income and payroll taxes that are paid by employees? Yes, it does.

This is not a problem with the FairTax. Even though the FairTax is a huge improvement on the current system, it's not magic. The money has to come from somewhere.

Not only does your article display how little you understand economics and the income tax, it also shows you failed to research the topic.

Stating that workers would have to take a wage cut is ridiculous. Currently an employer not only pays the full wage to his employee he also pays 7.5% additional to the federal government. With the Fair Tax he saves 7.5% and all costs associated with complying with the 66,000 pages of federal regulations. No accountants fees, bookkeeping fees, lawyers fees etc. Why would he cut his employees wages?

Rebating (or as it is called pre-bating) taxes up to the poverty level untaxes the truly poor. What is wrong with that?

The Fair Tax is truly progressive. It taxes wealth not wages. A wealthy person doesn't have wages or income, they have capital gains, in the form of interest payments and dividends. The pay no payroll tax, no medicare tax, and no social security tax. Under the Fair Tax they would pay. Also any drug dealer, prostitute, pimp, illegal gambler etc. would pay taxes and the underground economy of untaxed money would also be taxed.

Please, read the book.

The "Fairtax" would win over supporters if service/labor was taxed at a lower rate than new products. More US dolllars would remain here at home employing people in service and repair and less would go overseas to purchase cheap consumer goods. Such a plan would probably win over the labor unions, environmentalists and economists.

Critics of the FairTax almost always have to misrepresent the FairTax in order to find a "hook" on which to hang their objection. This is no exception.

Claiming that workers would see a 20+% drop in wages in order to sustain product prices is the diametric opposite of what will happen... workers will, in fact, see a rise in the amount of money they take home. With this increased income, workers will have the choice of raising their standard of living, building a cushion for retirement or to pass on to children or, since tax penalties will be eliminated, saving the money through investments for future uses.

Rather then hitting the lower and middle income worker, the FairTax will substantially increase both their purchasing power, and their political independence.

And that's really scaring those who oppose the FairTax.

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