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Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Food Prices And Shortages Surge: Let Them Eat Dirt?

Though not nearly as compelling as lesbian rumors surrounding LiLo, or gay rumors surrounding Scott McClellan, or gay/lesbian/horrifying reality surrounding the “Sex and the City” movie (the reality being that it made over $55 million on its opening weekend), you may have heard that there are food shortages and riots around the world. You may not have yet heard that more and more Americans are going hungry, though it would be spurious to say that we are anywhere near as desperate as some of these starving nations.

Bangladesh, Egypt and India—to name a few—have all had violent and occasionally deadly food riots in recent months as failed crops, storms, gas prices and government corruption continue to cause food shortages. The ultra-rich in these countries are—as always—doing nothing. I won’t debate the ethics of this, or whether or not they are morally obligated to help. But could they at least not do things like building the world’s most expensive house, estimated at $2 billion, in the thick of it all?

Marie Antoinette is famously misquoted as saying: “Let them eat cake.” It seems today’s grande bourgeoisie has a different approach: “Let them eat dirt!” And in Haiti, that’s just what they are doing.

No longer able to afford staples like beans and rice, impoverished Haitians are increasingly reliant on mud cookies for sustenance—and I don’t mean grandma’s chocolate, walnut recipe. The confections are made of baked river mud mixed with salt and vegetable shortening and called Terre (as in ‘Terra-cotta’, ‘terra firma’, and ‘terrifying’). Eating mud does not make one ill, but it isn’t exactly a balanced meal and it effectively serves only to stave off hunger pangs.

I have followed Haiti’s situation closely over the last decade, and I’m glad to see that quite a bit of media attention has been bestowed on the troubled island in recent months. However, in terms of our ability to give aid, it couldn’t come at a worse time, as we too are seeing signs of food shortage...or at least fund shortages. An AP article recently printed in the International Herald Tribune reveals that 99 percent of 180 food banks have seen an increase in clients, some listing an estimated increase of 40 percent. According to the Labor Department, the highest increase in food prices in 18 years just occurred in April. Food banks are begging for increased funding, and so I find it doubtful that we will be able to do much for other countries at the time.

Another article shows that Americans are turning to dirt for sustenance, too, but not in the same capacity as the Haitians. The largest seed company in the U.S. has seen a double in sales over the last year as more and more people are deciding to grow their own produce, according to an AP article on MSN Money. And they aren’t the only ones:

“Seed Savers Exchange, a nonprofit dedicated to preserving heirloom vegetables, ran out of potatoes this year and mailed 10,000 tomato and pepper transplants to customers in early May, double its usual amount. The organization, based near Decorah, Iowa, sold 34,000 packets of seed in the first third of this year, more than it did all last year.”

William Blake said, “In seed time learn, in harvest teach, in winter enjoy.” But those days of leisure might be over. The new dictum appears to be, “In seed time sow, in harvest reap, in winter eat the cat.” And sorry, Santa—no cookies this year, unless you don’t mind a nice, silty aftertaste.

What does the future of the food shortage hold? Will Wolfgang Puck Express find competition against a chain of Michel Lotito Pica Buffets? Will the South Beach Diet give way to the Donner Diet? My crystal ball says things won’t be getting too dire just yet. As grease vats are emptied by grease bandits, we may have to forgo fried food, and people may be apt to take their toast with little spots of penicillin rather than chucking it at the first sign of mold (a smear of bleu cheese will cover that right up!), but we won’t be starving just yet.

Still, some investors may want to follow these food price surges and invest in farmland or consumables. Investors may also find a cash cow in dairy industry investments. With controversy surrounding biofuel production and its contribution to food shortages, investing in biofuels seems a little riskier, but keep your ears to the ground on that one. And taste some soil while you’re down there. It never hurts to try...

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Federal Reserve Meeting Today: BYOB, Pizza Will Be Served

The Fed is meeting again today and tomorrow. To mark this diminishingly historic occasion, I have composed the following ditty. Ahem...

There once was a man named Bernanke:
For the banks, an immaculate flunky.
When their assets all failed
with our money he bailed
them all out like a good little monkey

Thank you. Thank you.

As the Fed disappears behind the curtain yet again, ‘O we of little faith’ are bracing for yet another quarter percent drop in interest rates. Soon it will be official: You will likely see more appreciation on kitsch from the Franklin Mint than anything that comes out of the U.S. Mint. My friends all laughed when I plunked down 100 smackers for my Mystical Dreamcatcher Pocketwatch, but who’s laughing now?!

For those of you who didn’t have foresight enough to invest in chilling likenesses of dead royalty and zirconium encrusted daggers, allow me to predict what the Fed is planning to do. Just let me look into my Dragon of Lore Crystal Ball (a steal at 5 payments of only $39.99!)...
Abra-cadabra!
~~Ah yes...I scry a rather stoned-looking Bernanke telling the table that he knows exactly what needs to be done. Well! That’s good news!~~
~~Oh. He wasn’t talking about the economy. He was suggesting that they order pizza.
But still...based on his track record, that’s one of his more reasonable suggestions.~~
~~Now someone else at the table is telling him that no one there can afford to have a pizza delivered
because food and gas prices have soared again.~~
~~Bernanke insists that “Referendum Deepdish” be passed as they can just print more money
in the office next door. The motion is passed.~~
~~Someone raises a new motion: Will the Reserve lower interest rates again despite the fact that it has done nothing to mitigate the housing crisis or prevent a recession? They ask the chairman directly.~~
~~Bernanke teeters in his seat for a moment, opens his mouth...and then passes out on the floor.
The attendees concur with the chairman’s motion to drop the interest rate again. Motion is passed.~~
~~The pizza arrives. The delivery fellow receives a lousy tip.~~

As we can see, it’s all business as usual at the Federal Reserve. But before I go off to polish my collection of Elvis Head Silver Dollars, I leave the Fed with three bits of advice:

  1. These are tough, confusing times, and I do in fact sympathize with anyone tasked with sorting this out, but your methods have proven to be the financial equivalent of bloodletting for the ailing economy. Try something new for once, PLEEEEEEEASE!
  2. We know the banks own you (literally), but at least pretend that you have the interest of the American people in mind. You know, we love a good circus act. And if you piss us off, then...
  3. Don’t stiff the pizza boy: He knows where you live.

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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Consequences Of Inflation: Nonsense Says Bernanke

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has shown once again that he could care less about the consequences of inflation. In his latest address, Bernanke made it pretty clear that at the next Fed meeting (March 18th) he is planning to lower interest rates once again. Did he not get all the reports that were released this month about ramped inflation, or does he just not care?

Every month it seems inflation is getting worse and worse, and the economy despite all the rate cuts, is continuing its downward spiral. Newsflash to Bernanke: The rate cut thing isn’t working. Well, it is certainly working to increase inflation, and devalue the dollar, but it isn’t helping the economy like he hoped. Rather than admit defeat, Bernanke is making what he must think is a valiant stand, but rather than glory all he is likely to see is stagflation and a bunch of ticked-off retired folks.

To all of the retirees out there, I offer you my sincerest apologies. It appears that your retirement money is not going to go as far as you probably planned. You can thank Alan Greenspan, and now Bernanke for that little favor. I wonder how many parents are going to have to move in with their children because they can no longer afford retirement? It would be an interesting irony considering how children are now moving out later and later in life. To all of the entrepreneurs out there, can I suggest starting a business catering to in-law additions or design? Just an idea I thought I’d share to help fill a need in this soon to be emerging market, compliments of Mr. Bernanke of course.

If you have yet to retire, hopefully you have enough time to conquer this inflation problem within your retirement portfolio. My suggestions are to diversify out of the dollar and make sure that you have exposure to gold and silver. Gold makes me nervous right now, seeing how high its price has gone, but at this point I would feel much better owning gold than dollars. Whatever you choose to invest in, make sure that you are taking inflation into account in your retirement need projections, and you had better be expecting more than 2 or 3 percent.

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Thursday, February 21, 2008

What Is Stagflation?

There is a lot of talk going around about stagflation, but many people have no idea what stagflation is. The term has only been around for about 40 years and is not used all that much, but suddenly it is being thrown around everywhere.

Stagflation is a blend of the words stagnation and inflation. It is used to describe an economy which is stagnating (or not growing) while also facing high inflation.

Typically, the Fed deals with economic stagnation by lowering key interest rates or adding to the money supply. These actions usually work to get the economy growing again.

On the flipside, when an economy is booming and people are making money left and right, inflation begins to rise. When this happens, the Fed typically raises interest rates thus making money harder to get. This slows the economy and inflation with it. So back to Stagflation…

In a period of stagflation, the Fed doesn’t know what to do. The economy is slow, so they want to lower interest rates and get it moving, but making money easier to get only makes inflation worse. The Fed has to decide what is more important: economic growth or inflation.

Right now, the U.S. economy is grinding to a halt, and very likely heading into a recession. Unfortunately we are also facing strong inflationary pressure as prices continue to rise (see inflation post). If we aren’t already in a period of stagflation, then it appears that we are headed straight for it. The last time the U.S. dealt with stagflation was in the 1970’s and it was not a fun experience.

Though the way we run are economy now is different than it was back then, some would argue that our current situation (housing and credit crisis) is far worse then the situation was in the 70’s leading up to that period of stagflation. I don’t know how bad it can get, but something worse than the 15 percent inflation and 9 percent unemployment seen during the past episode of stagflation doesn’t sound the least bit exciting to me. Personally, I will be heavily diversifying into foreign markets and things like gold and silver to protect myself, just in case.

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