While economists do not believe Florida will experience the same extreme double digit declines of the past, seven of the ten housing markets expected to take the largest drop in the first quarter of 2011, are in Florida. Florida, Nevada and Michigan are the states expected to have the largest drops in single-family home prices over the next year, according to a recent market study. See the following article from HousingWire for more on this.
Housing markets in Florida took the top five spots of cities with the weakest future price growth, according to projections by Santa Ana, Calif.-based Veros Real Estate Solutions.
The risk management and collateral valuation service provider said its projections for Q111 puts prices for single-family residential homes down 10% in the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. metropolitan statistical area (MSA). In addition, Veros projects declines in other Florida MSAs including Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville (8.9%), Naples-Marco Island, FL (8.8%), Orlando-Kissimmee (8.7%) and Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, (8.6%). Of the 10 MSAs with the biggest projected drop in prices, seven are in Florida, two in Nevada and one in Michigan.
“Florida remains ground zero for the weakest home price forecasts in the US, although extreme declines of 20% or 25% are no longer expected since strong price corrections have already occurred,” said Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Veros projects markets in California and Texas will see the strongest growth in Q111. Veros projects prices in the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. MSA will increase 3.4%, followed by increases in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. (3.1%), Houston-Sugarland-Baytown, Texas (3%), San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif. (3%) and Amarillo, Texas (2.7%).
“More of California’s coastal areas are showing modest signs of appreciation, with San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos leading with an expected appreciation of 3.4%,” Fox said. “Los Angeles and San Francisco are close behind, and were not among the top five in the last quarter. The Great Plains region including Texas remains steady.”
The Veros projections are calculated for more than 900 counties, nearly 300 metro areas and almost 14,000 zip codes and derived by analyzing more than 50 data points including interest, unemployment and inflation rates, housing inventory levels and other economic and geographic trends.
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