Gold surged 6% in one week to a record high of $1,881.40 an ounce on news of U.S. economic growth downgrades and a volatile market, but analysts are predicting the frenzy is about to subside and will be followed by a significant price correction. The stabilized value of gold is thought to be around $1,500 an ounce, although a lack of safe haven investments may keep the precious metal from falling to that level. Struggling real estate prices and wobbly world economies are leaving commodities as the only hedge against uncertainty for both individual and group investors. For more on this continue reading the following article from The Street.
Gold prices catapulted to a new record last week, as fears of a global double-dip recession sent investors piling into the safe-haven metal.
Despite the flight to safety, experts warn that time may be up for this current rally.
Gold for December delivery skyrocketed $30.20 to close at $1,852.20 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although settled well off session highs. The gold price has traded as high as $1,881.40 and as low as $1,824.50 while the spot gold price was adding $25, according to Kitco’s gold index.
Silver prices closed up $1.74 at $42.43 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.42% at $73.94 while the euro was up 0.44% vs. the dollar.
Gold prices have risen more than 6% in just a week as investors gobbled up the metal as protection against slowing global growth from China to Germany to the U.S. A day after Morgan Stanley(HPQ) lowered U.S. growth prospects for 2011 and 2012, gold prices showed no signs of slowing down.
Citigroup(C) also joined the fray, lowering its 2011 U.S. growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.6% and for 2012 to 2.1% from 2.7%. JPMorgan(JPM) went event further, warning that the U.S. will grow just 1% in the fourth quarter from the previously expected 2.5% and just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2012. While growth signs point to the possibility of a double-dip recession, Bank of America(BAC) may slash 10,000 jobs, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, which is ominous for any attempt at a recovery in employment.
Investors don’t really have a lot of options for "safe" places to stash cash as Hewlett-Packard’s(HPQ) dismal 2011 outlook kept stocks volatile giving limited respite from Thursday’s carnage. The popular gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares(GLD), added 15 tons Thursday to 1,286, but many experts are now bracing for a pullback after gold’s explosive run.
David Banister, chief investment strategist at ActiveTradingPartners.com, said that gold will peak at either $1,862, $1,880 or $1,907 an ounce.
"One of those three is going to peak out this parabolic blow off top rally and be followed by a great opportunity to profit by shorting," he said.
Banister, who thinks that gold’s long-term bull run is not yet over, said that peaks are typically followed by 15%-20% corrections, which would take gold to the $1,500 an ounce level.
Bob Haber, CEO of Haber Trilix, doesn’t think that gold has seen its final highs but that there are technical signals that are screaming overbought conditions.
"There has developed short-term bullishness which probably needs to be unrewarded, meaning a short sharp correction," he said.
Of course, experts can’t predict when that correction will come, but gold’s status as a safe-haven looks safe. A perfect storm of high inflation in emerging markets, negative real interest rates worldwide and possibly more currency debasement from central banks are all supporting gold prices.
Barclays Capital wrote in a recent note that "every outbreak of financial fears has coincided with a rally in investment demand for gold … This has also been the case in the past few months: July data shows that gold ETPs saw the largest net inflows since May 2010."
The research firm remains bullish on gold saying persistent economic uncertainty "bodes well for history’s oldest form of wealth."
Gold mining stocks were rising Friday along with the gold price. Kinross Gold(KGC) was up 1.89% to $16.75 while Yamana Gold(AUY) was popping 2.55% at $15.68. Other gold stocks, Agnico-Eagle(AEM) and Eldorado Gold(EGO) were trading higher at $65.88 and $19.44, respectively.
This article was republished with permission from The Street.