U.S. Debt Default Inevitable, Necessary

Some economists are predicting that the recent U.S. credit downgrade is the first link in a chain of reactions to the country’s poor fiscal management that will eventually …

Some economists are predicting that the recent U.S. credit downgrade is the first link in a chain of reactions to the country’s poor fiscal management that will eventually lead to debt default. The debt deal failed to make any significant cuts to spending and no tax increases, which leaves the government even more leverage to continue overspending with no means of paying off its debt. Analysts believe this can’t last forever and that eventually the country will have to default in order to force the government into balancing the budget. The fact that there is no entity standing by to bail out the U.S. will force the country into accounting for its expenditures, which will then set the stage for more fiscally responsible governance. For more on this continue reading the following article from Money Morning.

Now that Standard & Poor’s has finally slashed its U.S. credit rating, it’s more apparent than ever that a U.S. default is imminent.

So if you’re at all panicked by S&P’s decision to downgrade the country’s top-tier credit rating – and the resultant freefall in U.S. stock prices – brace yourself: It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
But make no mistake, it will get better.

In fact, at this point, a U.S. default is the only conceivable remedy to our debt affliction.

Here’s why …

The Wrong Road

The United States has been able to coast on its top -tier credit rating for far too long. The truth is, this country stopped being a AAA credit risk in early 2007.

That’s when the Bush administration’s excess spending and military forays into the Middle East sent us down the wrong road and ultimately drove the fiscal 2008 federal deficit to more than $400 billion. That’s despite the fact that the economy was at the top of an economic boom at the time.

It’s true that our fiscal position has grown substantially worse since then, but that’s mainly because of the G reat R ecession of 2008-09.

Even if an imaginary amalgam of Calvin Coolidge and Bill Clinton had been in the White House since 2008, inheriting the overspending already built into the system, the federal deficit still would have reached $700 billion to $800 billion over the last few years.

Just the bailouts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler would have added enough to the structural costs of recession to push the arithmetic off kilter.

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The Bush administration’s additional spending in 2008, U.S. President Barack Obama’s $800 billion-plus of "stimulus," and the g rotesque addiction that Congress continues to have to subsidies for farmers, ethanol, and idiotic "green" energy projects have all made the position worse. But they only account for about half of the annual deficit.

Of course, while recent political decisions don’t bear much responsibility for the current lousy U.S. position, our current crop of politicians have been – and will continue to be – ineffective in their attempts to emerge from it.

The Slippery Slope

Far from representing $1 trillion or even $2.5 trillion in spending cuts, the recent debt-ceiling agreement will actually produce less than $100 billion in cuts, all in the fiscal years ending September 2012 and September 2013. Cuts beyond those dates will require further titanic efforts by future politicians.

Additionally, no major cabinet department has been abolished – or even downgraded. No major military operation has been terminated. And no major entitlement program has been cut. On the other side, even the low-hanging fruit of ethanol subsidies has not been eliminated from the tax code, and it seems very unlikely that taxes can be raised high enough to affect the problem without putting the U.S. into an even deeper economic hole.

Meanwhile, the recession that has already lasted nearly four years is showing no sign of giving way to healthy growth. Massive budget deficits and massive growth of debt are inevitable under these circumstances.

Therefore, the U.S. credit rating is on a slippery slope, and more downgrades are inescapable.

Standard and Poor’s already has said there is a one-in-three chance of a further downgrade. And i t seems unlikely that Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) and Fitch Ratings Inc. will maintain their top-tier ratings on U.S. credit since their competitor has already downgraded it.

From here on out, each incoming downgrade will be met by dire predictions of gloom, a slump in the stock market, a boom in gold prices – and, extraordinarily, by a further decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields.

Future Credit Downgrades and a U.S. Default

The idea of a decline in the safety of U.S. Treasuries causing a flight to safety in which investors buy still more U.S. bonds is a sign that markets are truly irrational.

But if nothing effective is done, this game eventually will come to an end. As the U.S. credit rating is downgraded again and again, somewhere this side of BBB-minus (the lowest "investment grade" rating) the markets will finally panic and decide that U.S. deficits can no longer be supported. That will make it impossible to sell enough Treasuries to finance America’s debt burden.

As in the case of Greece last year, this is likely to happen quite suddenly. And when it happens, the market’s negative verdict will be irreversible.

Furthermore, since there is no kind Sugar Daddy such as the European Central Bank (ECB) standing by with its force of German taxpayers ready to bail out the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. will be forced to default.

That will be very painful in the short run, but in the long run will be a good thing.

After all, there is no reason why governments should be considered better credit risks than top- quality companies.

The Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) and The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) make tangible products that people want to buy – and they do so at tightly controlled costs. So it’s clear that companies like these can repay modest levels of debt under almost any circumstances.

The same is not true for a government – especially one that makes no money itself, produces few goods and services of value, and obtains money only by squeezing its unfortunate taxpayers. Just imagine a world in which investors won’t lend to governments: That’s a world in which governments cannot overspend – they won’t have the money.

That’s a world in which resources cannot be diverted from the productive to the unproductive. That’s also a world in which economic power is determined by success – and one in which the chairman of Coca-Cola has more credibility than the U.S. Treasury s ecretary. Our leaders down in Washington may think that such a world is pure hell – a civil servant’s version of Dante’s Inferno.

But for investors like you and me, a world like that – where everything makes sense – is a financial Nirvana.

This aricle was republished with the permission of Money Morning.

 

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