Analysts at Jones Lang LaSalle are looking at rising global real estate sales as a sign that the recovery phase of the real estate market is over and that sustainable growth is supporting year-on-year increases. A flurry of transactional activity drove the final tally of global property investment to $436 billion for 2012, which was $1 billion higher than 2011 and a full 36% higher than 2010. Experts say wealthy property owners attempting to dodge possible capital gains tax increases in the U.S. helped pump up the numbers, but even so the real estate research firm projects 2013 transaction volume to meet or beat last year’s totals. For more on this continue reading the following article from Property Wire.
Global real estate investment volumes rallied towards the end of 2012 with US$141 billion transacted over the final quarter to lift the year’s total preliminary volume to $436 billion, according to Jones Lang LaSalle capital markets research from 60 countries.
The real estate investment volumes in 2012 represented a slight increase on 2011’s $435 billion, and a 36% increase over 2010.
The strong quarter was attributed, in part, to a year end rush of United States investors seeking to allocate funds to avoid capital gains taxes from the government’s fiscal cliff crisis.
In the US volume rose 51% quarter on quarter. Mexico, Canada, France, Germany and the Nordic countries also finished the year strongly.
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Asia-Pacific has a consistent end to the year, but full year volumes were down slightly in 2012 at $92.5 billion compared to $98 billion in 2011 with slower economic growth in China effecting volumes in the second biggest market.
Europe beat expectations by matching 2011 in Euro terms but 8% down in US$ terms partly due to a weak Euro. The United Kingdom remained the most active market in 2012 and there was increased activity in the fourth quarter on the continent with France, Germany and the Nordics seeing stronger ends to the year.
On the back of this better than expected end to 2012, Jones Lang LaSalle is estimating full year 2013 volumes will be between $450 to $500 billion, with performance back ended following a similar pattern to 2011 and 2012. Momentum will be maintained in the Americas with Asia Pacific expected to improve and EMEA looking to record a similar performance to 2012.
‘The surge in the final quarter of the year demonstrates once again that real estate markets are well through the recovery phase of the cycle and are now supporting year on year increases in transactional volumes. Based on this evidence we anticipate that 2013 will be another one of growth with global volumes set to be between $450 to $500 billion,’ said Arthur de Haast, head of the International Capital Group at Jones Lang LaSalle.
David Green-Morgan, Global Capital Markets Research director said that the greater allocations to real estate from a number of institutional and private equity groups are starting to have a real impact on the global real estate investment market.
‘The threat of higher capital gains taxes in the US triggered a wave of year end transactions, but the underlying factor is the attraction of real estate in a low yield, high liquidity environment,’ he explained.
‘Despite the improvement in values over the last three years globally, we are still 15 to 20% below the market peak. There remains a great deal of upside potential, particularly in secondary markets which have remained subdued since the financial crisis but are starting to attract investor interest given their more attractive yields,’ he added.
This article was republished with permission from Property Wire.